Climate experts from the United Nations issued a warning in 2018 that if mankind wants to meet the Paris Climate Agreement's goal of limiting global average temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), it would need to substantially cut emissions in half by 2030.
According to a UN assessment released on Wednesday, assuming countries adhere to their present promises, global emissions will rise by 10.6 percent from 2010 levels. This might result in an increase in the average global temperature of up to 2.9 degrees Celsius, or 5.22 degrees Fahrenheit.
It's a sobering forecast as world leaders get ready to discuss their climate change strategies at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, next month. It also serves as a reminder that there is a huge gap between what nations say and what they really do.
The consequences of those actions—or lack thereof—are already evident and will only worsen. This week, UNICEF issued a warning about the regular heat waves that 559 million children currently experience. Even under more optimistic scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions, nearly every child on Earth would experience more intense heat by 2050.
Vanessa Nakate, a climate activist, stated in the study that "these calamities are not inevitable or 'natural' - they are of our creating."
This week, The Lancet also released its assessment of the relationship between health and climate change, noting that increasing average temperatures are accelerating the spread of some diseases, compromising food security, escalating already-existing inequalities, and endangering the health system as a whole.
The paper states that "urgent action is required to increase the resilience of the health system, to prevent a quickly growing loss of life, and to reduce suffering in a changing environment."
COP27 and other climate conferences serve as the primary forum for international cooperation on these issues. However, the procedure has been agonizingly slow, and despite calls for more drastic reductions in emissions, other economic worries might once again impede development.
This week, The Lancet also released its assessment of the relationship between health and climate change, noting that increasing average temperatures are accelerating the spread of some diseases, compromising food security, escalating already-existing inequalities, and endangering the health system as a whole.
The paper states that "urgent action is required to increase the resilience of the health system, to prevent a quickly growing loss of life, and to reduce suffering in a changing environment."
COP27 and other climate conferences serve as the primary forum for international cooperation on these issues. However, the procedure has been agonizingly slow, and despite calls for more drastic reductions in emissions, other economic worries might once again impede development.
More nations are committing to take action than ever before, yet it is still far from enough
The 2015 Paris Agreement established a framework wherein nations would develop their own plans to carry out the agreement's goals, which included keeping warming this century to less than 2 degrees Celsius over pre-Industrial levels and going as low as 1.5 degrees.
The concept was that as economies developed and technology advanced, countries would increase their pledges, as specified in plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions. It was obvious from the start that what countries vowed to do wouldn't be enough (NDCs). Countries have been raising their aspirations thus far.
More countries than ever before are pledging to take action, but it is still far from enough.
In order to achieve the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which included limiting warming this century to less than 2 degrees Celsius over pre-Industrial levels and going as low as 1.5 degrees, governments were given a framework within which to create their own strategies.
According to plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions, the idea was that as economies and technology improved, nations would increase their obligations. It was immediately clear that the pledges made by nations would not be sufficient (NDCs). Up until now, nations have increased their aspirations.
However, it's possible that leaders won't be thinking about climate change while they meet in Sharm el-Sheikh. Worldwide inflation is increasing, and many governments are preparing for a recession. Fuel and food prices have increased as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. After years of decline, several nations are gradually boosting their usage of coal and other fossil fuels. Despite the fact that renewable energy is more affordable than ever, coal, oil, and natural gas still power the majority of the global economy.
For other nations, though, it is hard to ignore climate change. More than 1,100 people were killed by floods in Pakistan this summer, which were made worse by melting glaciers. Over 900 million people in China were affected by extreme heat, drought, and wildfires. Much of India was roasted by an enormous heat wave. Due to the fact that the nations who contributed the least to global greenhouse gas emissions are frequently the ones that suffer the most from warming, some delegates to the summit are not only demanding more urgency to solve climate change, but also for compensation. Last month, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made a clear request for such reparation.
He remarked told the UN General Assembly that it was time to "put fossil fuel producers, investors, and facilitators on notice." "Polluters should pay,"
But selling it is difficult, and developed nations like the US are reluctant to admit any responsibility. However, other nations will be less willing to take drastic measures to reduce their own emissions in the absence of compensation. Previous climate conferences have been derailed by this conflict, which may not be resolved at this one. As a result, momentum is sluggish to develop, and global greenhouse gas emissions will keep increasing while global average temperatures rise and their impacts intensify.